Cognitive operations models that open the black box and predict our decisions /
Attempts to improve decision-making are unlikely to succeed without an understanding of how and why people currently make choices. In this accessible and fascinating book, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos shows how mathematical models of decision processes in operational settings can provide this understa...
| Main Author: | Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | SpringerLink (Online service) |
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cham, Switzerland :
Springer,
[2023]
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| Physical Description: |
1 online resource (242 pages) |
| Subjects: |
| Summary: |
Attempts to improve decision-making are unlikely to succeed without an understanding of how and why people currently make choices. In this accessible and fascinating book, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos shows how mathematical models of decision processes in operational settings can provide this understanding. Alternative modelling approaches are contrasted, and clear criteria provided to determine whether a model is likely to provide useful insights in a range of practical situations. Managers facing decisions in a risky and uncertain world and researchers in the field of operations will have much to gain from the ideas presented here. -Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath, UK Professor Katsikopoulos challenges established theories and beliefs. If you care about diversity of thought, this book is a must-read. It will provide you with new perspectives and research ideas. -Enno Siemsen, Patrick A. Thiele Distinguished Chair in Business, Wisconsin School of Business, USA This book examines how people make decisions under risk and uncertainty in operational settings and opens the black box by specifying the cognitive processes that lead to human behavior. Drawing on economics, psychology and artificial intelligence, the book provides an innovative perspective on behavioral operations. It shows how to build optimization and heuristic decision-making models, compares the models on various dimensions such as predictive power and transparency, and discusses interventions for improving human behavior. This book will be particularly valuable to academics and practitioners who seek to select a modeling approach that suits the operational decision at hand. Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos is Professor of Behavioral Science at the University of Southampton, where he is the research director of the Business School. Previously, he was a visiting Assistant Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Senior Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and a German Science Foundation Fellow. Konstantinos is an internationally leading researcher in the interdisciplinary study of decision making, helping shape the field of behavioral operations research and chairing the behavioral group at the OR Society. |
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| Item Description: |
Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- About the Author -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 What Is Cognitive Operations? -- 1.1 Behavioral Operations -- 1.2 Cognitive Operations -- Notes -- Part I A Cognitive Perspective -- 2 Optimization and Simple Heuristics -- 2.1 When Do People Take Risks? -- 2.2 The Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty -- 2.3 Expected Utility Theory -- 2.4 Minimax and Maximax -- 2.5 Two Approaches to Modeling Human Behavior -- 2.6 The Kind of Studies in This Book -- 2.7 Summary -- Notes -- 3 Decision Under Risk -- 3.1 Empirical Phenomena. 3.2 Prospect Theory -- 3.3 Priority Heuristic -- 3.4 Predictive Power -- 3.5 Cognitive Processes -- 3.6 Transparency -- 3.7 Usefulness of Output -- 3.8 Summary and Resources -- Notes -- 4 Strategic Interaction -- 4.1 Giving and Receiving Ultimatums: Theory and Data -- 4.2 Inequity Aversion -- 4.3 Fast-and-Frugal Trees -- 4.4 Predicting Response Time Patterns -- 4.5 Cognitive Processes and Transparency -- 4.6 Theory Integration: Behavioral Outcomes -- 4.7 Beyond Bargaining Games -- 4.8 Summary and Segue -- Notes -- Part II Benefits of Cognitive Modeling -- 5 Inventory Control. 5.1 The Newsvendor Problem: Theory and Data -- 5.2 Optimization -- 5.3 Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic -- 5.4 Correction Heuristic -- 5.5 Predictive Power -- 5.6 Assessment and Integration of Models -- 5.7 Bounded Rationality and AI in Operations -- 5.8 Summary -- Notes -- 6 Decision Under Uncertainty -- 6.1 A Peace-Keeping Operation: Compliance Heuristic -- 6.2 Making Supply Chains Flexible and Robust -- 6.3 Ecological Rationality -- 6.4 Summary and a Guide -- Notes -- 7 Behavioral and Cognitive Interventions -- 7.1 Behavior with AI -- 7.2 Nudge and Boost -- 7.3 Summary -- Notes. 8 Lessons Learned and a Positive Look Ahead -- Notes -- Appendix -- Chapter 3: Decision Under Risk -- Chapter 4: Strategic Interaction -- Chapter 5: Inventory Control -- Chapter 6: Decision Under Uncertainty -- Bibliography -- Author Index -- Subject Index. Attempts to improve decision-making are unlikely to succeed without an understanding of how and why people currently make choices. In this accessible and fascinating book, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos shows how mathematical models of decision processes in operational settings can provide this understanding. Alternative modelling approaches are contrasted, and clear criteria provided to determine whether a model is likely to provide useful insights in a range of practical situations. Managers facing decisions in a risky and uncertain world and researchers in the field of operations will have much to gain from the ideas presented here. -Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath, UK Professor Katsikopoulos challenges established theories and beliefs. If you care about diversity of thought, this book is a must-read. It will provide you with new perspectives and research ideas. -Enno Siemsen, Patrick A. Thiele Distinguished Chair in Business, Wisconsin School of Business, USA This book examines how people make decisions under risk and uncertainty in operational settings and opens the black box by specifying the cognitive processes that lead to human behavior. Drawing on economics, psychology and artificial intelligence, the book provides an innovative perspective on behavioral operations. It shows how to build optimization and heuristic decision-making models, compares the models on various dimensions such as predictive power and transparency, and discusses interventions for improving human behavior. This book will be particularly valuable to academics and practitioners who seek to select a modeling approach that suits the operational decision at hand. Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos is Professor of Behavioral Science at the University of Southampton, where he is the research director of the Business School. Previously, he was a visiting Assistant Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Senior Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and a German Science Foundation Fellow. Konstantinos is an internationally leading researcher in the interdisciplinary study of decision making, helping shape the field of behavioral operations research and chairing the behavioral group at the OR Society. Includes bibliographical references and indexes. |
| Physical Description: |
1 online resource (242 pages) |
| Bibliography: |
Includes bibliographical references and indexes. |
| ISBN: |
9783031319976 3031319974 |